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#1 China's military build-up seen independent of U.S. moves

Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:17 am
by frigidmagi
Reuters
China's military build-up looks likely to continue "unabated" and independent of recent U.S. moves to reposition forces in Asia, the U.S. military commander for the Asia-Pacific region said on Tuesday.

Admiral Robert Willard, head of U.S. Pacific Command, said Washington's policy of rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region has drawn China's attention since it was unveiled last year, but did not drive Beijing's build-up.

"We've not seen Chinese military growth affected by the announcement, nor do we expect it to be. It has continued relatively unabated," Willard told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"They continue to advance their capabilities and capacities in all areas," he said at a hearing, days before China is expected to unveil its 2012 military budget at the annual meeting of China's parliament in Beijing.

Under a strategy designed to reposition forces eastward after a decade of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, Washington will keep large bases in Japan and South Korea, deploy up to 2,500 U.S. Marines in Australia and step up military cooperation with the Philippines.

Willard, referring to Chinese perceptions of U.S. policy, said: "I think they see themselves in that statement ... and will continue to observe very closely for the actions the United States takes to back up those words."

China has recorded a run of double-digit increases in the People's Liberation Army budget over the past two decades.

Last year, Beijing said it would increase military spending to 601.1 billion yuan in 2011, a 12.7 percent rise on the previous year, resuming double-digit growth after a dip to 7.5 percent growth in 2010.

MILITARY DIPLOMACY LAGS

China is "growing bolder with regard to their expanded regional and global presence, and China continues to challenge the United States and our partners in the region in the maritime, cyber and space domains," said Willard.

He repeated a long-standing Pentagon lament that U.S.-China military-to-military relations are "not where we want them to be," despite high-level pledges to deepen those ties.

Military-to-military relations lagged as a result of differences over the purpose of such exchanges; China's tendency to suspend military contacts following U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; and Beijing's policy of linking American defense policies and demanding concessions before ties can advance, Willard said in written testimony to the Senate panel.

"Nonetheless, we remain committed to evolving this security relationship with the objective of coexisting peacefully and both contributing constructively to regional security," he said.

In contrast to China's wary view of the U.S. rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region, the Pentagon sees "encouragement that has come from ... virtually all the actors in the region, with regard to their desire for U.S. staying power and influence in the region," said Willard.

"I don't think it's just about China," he said of China's neighbors who have encouraged the U.S. rebalancing.

Several countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, are locked in thorny maritime territorial disputes with China over the South China Sea. They have sought the support of Washington, which says it is neutral on the territorial row but concerned about freedom of navigation the region's critical sea lanes.
I post this not to encourage people to be afraid of China, but to show that the Chinese military build up is not very influenced by American actions. The primary goal as far as I can tell is to create power projection in order to secure resources that their industries need. Remember if those industries fail, China collapses. That would be bad. Yes, for us to.

There is alot of alarmism regarding the China, especially on the right wing. To the point I suspect that some of us have forgotten how to function outside a Cold War environment, or one where we have no near peers. I have alot of issues with the Government of the People's Republic, justified ones in the main. That said, their build up is well... A natural conquence of their economic position and while we should watch and prepare counters just in case... Panic is counter productive.

#2 Re: China's military build-up seen independent of U.S. moves

Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:26 pm
by Josh
Alarmism brings votes, pure and simple.

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China isn't thinking that adding a couple of carriers makes them competitive with us militarily, and they're not trying to compete with us in arenas like that because they don't have to. Our biggest potential points of confrontation are North Korea (no matter how that ends up coming apart, we're not likely to ever drive to the Yalu again), Japan, and of course the big thorn of Taiwan. In the latter two cases, a bit of saber rattling serves the purpose while not damaging the vital trade links.

Most likely they're adding projection capabilities like carriers so they can enhance the good old-fashioned imperialism they're already carrying out in Africa.

It's not a Cold War situation at all- while the MAD scenario's on the table in theory, neither side is looking for it and neither side is very likely to make a move that would even make the other consider honest-to-god military intervention. (See previous comment about not driving to the Yalu.) The Soviets never had MFN status and we never had most of what we buy labeled "Made in USSR" either.

But they make a nice bogeyman to scare voters with, especially with the misconceptions that are floated about how they could 'call our debt due!' and so on.

#3 Re: China's military build-up seen independent of U.S. moves

Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:22 pm
by General Havoc
We'll see...